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Seasonal probabilistic hydrological forecasting
Šípek, Václav
Seasonal hydrological forecasts represent a very current topic, especially in the context of extreme hydrological events that have taken place at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st century. These events are represented by large scale floods and long lasting periods of drought. This has led to a need for the effective water management strategies. These management strategies have to be able to efficiently distribute water resources both in the space and time. Seasonal hydrological forecasting systems constitute an essential part of water management strategies, as they enable the runoff estimation in a sufficient advance. This thesis deals with the seasonal hydrological forecasting system with a one month lead. The aim of this study is to apply three forecasting methods using an experimental watershed in the Czech Republic. The first method is represented by the reference climatology approach, the latter by the well-tested Ensemble Streamflow Prediction system (ESP), and the last by its newly proposed modification. This modification (modified ESP - mESP) is based on the restriction of input data established on their relations to the large scale climatological variables and patters. The first part of the thesis is focused on the investigation of possible relations among hydrometeorological...
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Seasonal probabilistic hydrological forecasting
Šípek, Václav
Seasonal hydrological forecasts represent a very current topic, especially in the context of extreme hydrological events that have taken place at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st century. These events are represented by large scale floods and long lasting periods of drought. This has led to a need for the effective water management strategies. These management strategies have to be able to efficiently distribute water resources both in the space and time. Seasonal hydrological forecasting systems constitute an essential part of water management strategies, as they enable the runoff estimation in a sufficient advance. This thesis deals with the seasonal hydrological forecasting system with a one month lead. The aim of this study is to apply three forecasting methods using an experimental watershed in the Czech Republic. The first method is represented by the reference climatology approach, the latter by the well-tested Ensemble Streamflow Prediction system (ESP), and the last by its newly proposed modification. This modification (modified ESP - mESP) is based on the restriction of input data established on their relations to the large scale climatological variables and patters. The first part of the thesis is focused on the investigation of possible relations among hydrometeorological...
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Seasonal probabilistic hydrological forecasting
Šípek, Václav ; Daňhelka, Jan (advisor) ; Kašpárek, Ladislav (referee) ; Fošumpaur, Pavel (referee)
Seasonal hydrological forecasts represent a very current topic, especially in the context of extreme hydrological events that have taken place at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st century. These events are represented by large scale floods and long lasting periods of drought. This has led to a need for the effective water management strategies. These management strategies have to be able to efficiently distribute water resources both in the space and time. Seasonal hydrological forecasting systems constitute an essential part of water management strategies, as they enable the runoff estimation in a sufficient advance. This thesis deals with the seasonal hydrological forecasting system with a one month lead. The aim of this study is to apply three forecasting methods using an experimental watershed in the Czech Republic. The first method is represented by the reference climatology approach, the latter by the well-tested Ensemble Streamflow Prediction system (ESP), and the last by its newly proposed modification. This modification (modified ESP - mESP) is based on the restriction of input data established on their relations to the large scale climatological variables and patters. The first part of the thesis is focused on the investigation of possible relations among hydrometeorological...
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